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关键词： Economics  

摘要： This thesis is separated in two chapters. In the first chapter I develop a multi-sector model with price frictions, production networks, trend inflation and different types of shocks to study how these conditions affect the properties of inflation and their implications for monetary policy. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy my results show that in this setting inflation becomes 30\% less sensitive to the output-gap compared to a standard one-sector model. Furthermore, in the multi-sector model inflation is affected by sectoral variables linked to between-sector and within-sector price distortions. This fact adds inertia to the inflationary process and makes monetary policy less effective. Additionally, the welfare costs of trend inflation increase by one order of magnitude in the multi-sector model compared to the standard one-sector model. The amplification is quantitatively explained by between-sector rather than within-sector price distortions. This suggests that one-sector models and models without heterogeneity underestimate the costs of long-run inflation and the efficacy of monetary policy to fight inflation. The second chapter is based on a paper jointly written with Francesca Loria. We construct a New Keynesian model with production networks to study how aggregate productivity, measured as the Solow residual, depends on sectoral markups and on the production network itself. The model also allows us to study the dynamic behavior of aggregate productivity facing different types of aggregate and sectoral shocks. The introduction of price stickiness allows us to shed a light on monetary-induced short run productivity changes. We calibrate a 14-sectors economy using the I-O tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. For the U.S. economy, aggregate productivity is quite sensitive to average markups. A relatively small average price markup of 15% over marginal cost can reduce the steady state level of productivity by 25% relative to a perfect competition

关键词： 宏观经济学   经济新常态  

摘要： 现阶段,我国经济的增长已经迈入新常态。新常态概念是由习近平主席在2014年考察河南时提出的,其主要特征表现为结构优化、动力转化以及速度变化。将其细化来看:经济增长的速度由高速转化为中高速增长;经济结构脱离了产能与结构调整的过程;经济增长的动力要转移到人力资本质量与技术创新上。那么,下文以此为背景分析高校宏观经济学课程的优化策略。1教学优化策略--教学内容本土化宏观经济学课程在教学内容的设计方面,应考虑与新古

ISBN: (纸本)9787111625841

关键词： 宏观经济学   微观基础   分析模式  

摘要： 就传统意义上来看,宏观经济理论常常缺乏微观基础,然而新古典革命和新凯恩斯革命都在尝试结合较为稳定的微观基础对宏观经济进行分析与研究。宏观经济一度被认为是在约束条件限制的背景中,经济学主体依照对宏观经济走向趋势进行分析,继而实现宏观经济学研究走向的最优化。本文将物理学经济学作为研究的背景,分别研究宏观经济学的微观基础,对预期机制等模式中存在的问题进行研究与分析。然而在宏观经济学的发展中,其存在的一个严重的缺陷是缺乏微观经济基础。本文就宏观经济学中常见的微观基础性的若干问题进行研究和分析。

关键词： Economics   Economic theory  

摘要： Bayesian empirical macroeconomic models are excellent tools for prediction and structural analysis. The use of a prior distribution facilitates model averaging, allows for structural identification of multiple time series models and makes estimation of high-dimensional models feasible. However, prior distributions need to be chosen carefully in order to accurately reflect the researcher's beliefs before looking at the data. I exemplify how to do so in this thesis by employing model averaging techniques in Bayesian spirit, by developing tools to express priors for structural vector-autoregressive models, and by showing a new approach to identify the impact of variations in uncertainty in a data-intensive environment. In the first chapter, which is based on joint work with Tigran Poghosyan, we use an Early Warning System (EWS) to recover leading indicators of fiscal distress events. In particular, we use Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA), a model averaging approach introduced by Leamer (1985) and popularised by Sala-i-Martin (1997), to assess the robustness of leading indicators for fiscal distress across different models. We find that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators are robust predictors of fiscal distress events. In a second step we assess the forecasting performance of an EWS based on the most robust leading indicators. We find that it offers a gain in predictive power compared to a baseline model which is based on fiscal leading indicators only. Lastly, we assess the robustness of these results across various model specifications, subsamples and estimation strategies. In the second chapter, which is based on joint work with Michele Piffer, we propose a new approach to express prior beliefs on the impulse responses of structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) models. This approach does not restrict the family of prior distributions to a set that is technically convenient. Rather, it combines extensive flexibility in the choice of priors with an efficient i

关键词： 宏观经济学   金融支柱   分析  

摘要： 自上世纪宏观经济学的概念诞生之后,后世学者不断对宏观经济学进行补充,使其更加完善,但是也存在其缺陷.金融危机的爆发,也为宏观经济学提供了一个典例.同时,金融危机爆发之后,以一定的频率出现,这为建立金融支柱也提供了理论基础.金融危机严重影响着经济的发展,甚至给全世界范围内的经济造成损害,因此建立金融支柱来促进经济的可持续发展是十分有必要的.

关键词： 宏观经济学   《宏观经济学原理》   方法论基础  

摘要： 中国历史上虽然有着丰富的财政思想,但缺乏系统的财政学。中国现代财政体系主要借鉴了西方财政学和苏联的财政学科体系。中华人民共和国成立以前,中国的财政研究以欧美为基础,曾出现了短暂的繁荣,但最终还是遭到了战争的破坏。从新中国成立到改革开放,中国财政教育和研究主要集中参考苏联的财政学科体系。在20世纪80年代中,中国财政学者见证了如何建

关键词： 宏观经济学   金融支柱   金融危机  

摘要： 自20世纪以来,金融危机爆发频率之快、破坏范围之广泛,引起了全世界范围内的关注。金融危机会呈现一定的阶段性,在某一段时间内就会爆发,这是资本主义世界所固有的规律。由于金融危机具有强大的破坏性,所以在对经济学进行研究分析时,需要进一步重视金融支柱的重建。通过对宏观经济学理论进行研究,发现金融支柱能够对经济发展起到一定的导向作用。金融支柱是一个相对抽象的概念,但是在金融领域内却是实现金融变革的一个重要方式。本文通过研究宏观经济学中金融支柱的概念,以分析金融对世界经济所带来的影响及变革。

关键词： Economics  

摘要： This collection of essays examines the effect of wage inequality on the aggregate economy and evaluates policies. In the first chapter, I evaluate the hypothesis that Skill Biased Technological Change (SBTC) leads to the decline in the firm entry rate in the United States. To the extent that people have to quit their jobs to start businesses, wages play the role of an opportunity cost of entrepreneurship. SBTC increases the skill premium and leads to an increase in the opportunity cost for college graduates to start businesses and to a decrease in the opportunity cost for high school graduates. The model can explain 21% of the actual decline in the entry rate. I conclude that SBTC is not an important factor in accounting for the decrease in the entry rate. In the second chapter, I examine the effect of a new college subsidy scheme whose amount varies across years on enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium com- pared to the current system in which the subsidy is constant across years. I find that switching to back-loaded subsidies with the same total budget increases the number of college graduates, decreases college dropout and decreases the skill premium more than the case with increasing the total budget of the current subsidies by 50%, and are welfare improving despite the fact that enrollment decreases. In the third chapter, I examine what is the optimal policy against the rising skill premium in a heterogeneous agent macroeconomic model in which agents make endogenous enrollment and dropout decisions. Some college enrollees in the model endogenously drop out after learning ability during college. Using this model, I derive the optimal progressive labor income tax and optimal college subsidies separately and compare the social welfare. While the effect of college subsidies is smaller than the case without learning ability, the optimal college subsidies improve social welfare more than the optimal progressive labor income tax.

关键词： Economics   Macroeconomics   Debts   Public   Default (Finance)   International economic relations  

摘要： This dissertation contains three essays in International Macroeconomics. The first two chapters study clustered sovereign defaults, the default events where multiple countries default in a relatively short period of time. In spite of the fact that clustering of defaults is a recurring phenomenon, there is a lack of empirical as well as quantitative research focusing on clustered defaults. Therefore, the first two chapters try to uncover the the nature of shocks and the mechanism through which these shocks lead countries to clustered defaults. The first chapter uses the data on 146 sovereign defaults from 1975 to 2014 and categorizes one-third of these defaults as clustered default episodes. It then asks if the nature of shocks that drive clustered defaults differ from those that drive idiosyncratic defaults. I find that global variables, global shocks to transitory component of output of the countries and world interest rate fluctuations, play a crucial role in predicting clustered default events: for clustered default episodes, the predicted probability of default goes up by two-and-a-half times after the inclusion of global variables as explanatory variable. Idiosyncratic defaults, on the other hand, are not influenced by the presence of global variables as explanatory variable in the specification, and the predicted probability of default remains unchanged. Motivated by the finding of the first chapter, the second chapter builds a quantitative framework to study clustered defaults. The chapter begins with a joint estimation of structural parameters that drive the output process of 24 countries and a process for the world interest rate. The postulated output process includes transitory and permanent global components, as well as transitory and permanent country-specific components. I then build a sovereign default model augmented with financial frictions at the firm level. The model and the estimation process of driving forces are validated jointly when the shocks