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关键词： 状态空间模型   贝叶斯方法   动态因子模型   时间序列分析   宏观经济学  

摘要： 《实证宏观经济学:贝叶斯多元时间序列方法》[英]格里·库普,迪米特里斯·克罗比利斯著/李力,郝大鹏,王博译/东北财经大学出版社/2018. 9作者简介格里·库普,英国斯克莱德大学商学院教授,主要从事贝叶斯时间序列分析等研究,在‘Review of Economic Studies’‘Journal of Monetary Economics’等顶尖杂志发表论文数十篇。迪米特里斯·克罗比利斯,英国埃塞克斯大学商学院教授,主要从事时间序列分析和贝叶斯计量等研究,在‘Journal of Econometrics’‘International Economic Review’等一流杂志发表论文数十篇。

ISBN: (纸本)9787214228727

关键词： 宏观经济学   创新   调控   转变  

摘要： 目前我国的经济发展已经迈入了一个全新的时代,在经济发展新时代下宏观调控也将面临发展的转折点,所以将宏观调控作为基础的宏观经济学更是面临着巨大的挑战,政府必须要调整经济发展模式以适应当今的经济状况,为我国的经济建设做出贡献。

关键词： 清洁生产   微观经济学   宏观经济学   产业结构调整  

摘要： 资源短缺和环境污染是困扰一国经济发展的难题,尤其是当前中国正处于生态文明建设和经济结构调整的关键时期,找到一条符合中国国情的解决途径至关重要。目前国家政策更多倾向于末端治理工艺,虽然末端治理污染减排效果立竿见影,但其仅仅是被动地进行污染物末端处理,治理成本太高、治理难度太大且造成资源浪费,因此末端治理工艺不是解决环境污染的科学方式,同时末端治理工艺也无法起到促进我国经济结构调整的作用。清洁生产则可以生产活动的全过程层面,实现预防和削减污染物的产生,达到节能减排的目的,此外,清洁生产还具有促进产业结构调整的功能,而产业结构调整恰恰是国家经济结构调整的关键环节,因此清洁生产是促进中国生态文明建设和经济结构调整的关键举措。基于清洁生产的重要性,本文以现有理论研究为基础,从经济学层面剖析清洁生产对一个完整的生产活动产生的影响,同时对清洁生产促进产业结构调整展开研究。其中清洁生产的经济学分析包括微观经济学分析和宏观经济学分析两部分,微观经济学分析是以需求、供给、外部性、均衡价格以及最大总剩余五大经济学理论为工具,以供给量、需求量等具体经济学指标的变化,分析微观层面清洁生产对企业、行业和国家产生的影响;宏观经济学分析则是参照生产函数和长期总供给曲线理论,借助技术水平、资本量等一般表象的特征,分析宏观层面清洁生产对企业、行业和国家产生的影响;清洁生产促进产业结构调整的研究则是从两者的内在联系以及清洁生产促进产业结构调整的作用途径两方面展开研究。经分析和研究发现,从经济学层面来看,清洁生产可以优化市场需求量和供给量等经济学指标,改善技术水平和资本量等一般表象,从而提高企业利润、增强企业市场竞争力、推动企业进步,进而扩大行业规模、优化行业结构、保障行业高质量发展,最终实现国家经济可持续发展。从产业结构调整层面来看,清洁生产和产业结构调整的本质相同,都是“减少投入,提高产出,降低污染”;同时清洁生产可以通过源头替代、过程控制和末端循环三类清洁生产技术,一方面促进技术进步,对产业结构调整产生直接影响,另一方面优化供给、需求、国家政策以及国际贸易和投资四大因素,对产业结构调整产生间接影响。

关键词： International Finance   Macroeconomics   Monetary Economics  

摘要： This dissertation consists of three independent chapters analyzing the sources of business cycles and the role of monetary policy. Taking both closed- and open-economy perspectives, I study the importance of expectations for the empirical identification of economic and policy shocks, the nature of business cycle fluctuations, and the optimal conduct of monetary policy. The first chapter is titled "International Spillovers and the Exchange Rate Channel of Monetary Policy,'' and is joint work with Vito Cormun. Motivated by the observation that exchange rate fluctuations largely influence small open economies, we propose a novel approach to separately identify the effects of domestic and external shocks on exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables, thereby uncovering a set of new empirical findings. A first finding is that external shocks account for most of exchange rate fluctuations. Relatedly, the bulk of external shocks is strongly correlated with measures of global risk aversion and uncertainty (e.g. the VIX), and a country's net foreign asset position largely explains the exposure of its exchange rate to external disturbances. A second finding is that domestic and external disturbances generate very different comovement patterns between interest rates and exchange rates. In particular, unlike domestic shocks, external shocks are associated with large and significant deviations from uncovered interest parity. As a result, an econometrician that fails to properly distinguish between sources of exchange rate fluctuations is bound to obtain puzzling estimates of the exchange rate effects of domestic monetary policy shocks. These empirical findings have profound implications for models of small open economy and exchange rate determination. In particular, they favor theories in which exchange rates are jointly determined by the risk-bearing capacity in financial markets as well as the extent of a country's financial imbalances. For this reason, we develop a mode

关键词： 宏观经济学   “金融支柱”   金融学理论   金融规律   金融危机  

摘要： 由于金融危机具有较大的破坏性,所以学者加深了对经济学的研究、分析,重视对"金融支柱"的重建。在本文的分析中,首先阐述了宏观经济学的"金融支柱"的内涵,然后从不同的角度入手,分析宏观经济学的"金融支柱"建设的方式,以期为相关人员提供参考。

关键词： Health economics   Macroeconomics   Public finance  

摘要： This dissertation consists of three essays that study the macroeconomics of health care. The first essay studies how policies can be designed to reduce differences in life expectancy across income groups in the United States and examines what the consequences of these policies are for welfare and the macroeconomy. Using a calibrated structural life cycle model with incomplete markets, heterogeneous agents, and endogenous health, I find that a universal health insurance reform leads to higher life expectancy, lower life expectancy inequality, lower health care spending, higher GDP per capita, and higher welfare, even after controlling for the increased tax burden needed to finance the reform. The second essay develops a structural life cycle model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents to study how the ability to file for medical bankruptcy affects incentives to purchase health insurance. I find that the ability to file for medical bankruptcy crowds out private health insurance coverage. The majority of the population, however, is better off in the economy with medical bankruptcy because of the implicit insurance provided by this option. Finally, motivated by the considerable heterogeneity in GDP per capita across the states of the US, the third essay develops a model to quantify the welfare differences across the states as measured by the expected lifetime utility of being born in a particular state. Using a calibrated version of the model that allows for state-specific variation in mortality risk, consumption uncertainty, and educational attainment, I document large and persistent heterogeneity in welfare across the states of the US.

关键词： Financial Frictions   Financial Shocks   Firm Heterogeneity   Information Externality   Liability Dollarization   Sudden Stops  

摘要： This dissertation consists of two chapters on macroeconomics with financial frictions. The first chapter studies the role of firm heterogeneity in the transmission of financial shocks to the real economy. Evidence from the recent European debt crisis shows that firms responded differently to the severe credit tightening that occurred during this period, where smaller ones adjusted their balance sheets more aggressively and performed better in economies with a more skewed firm size distribution. A model of heterogeneous firms, that face financial frictions (defaultable debt and costly equity issuance), a financial intermediation sector, and a sovereign, is proposed to explain these facts. Financial frictions are key because they generate financing structures that depend on firm size, where small firms rely more on equity than debt, which is relatively more costly. Sufficiently large increases in public debt trigger a binding lending constraint for the intermediaries that cause a crowding out of private lending and leads smaller firms to adjust more than large firms. Quantitative results show that firm heterogeneity has aggregate effects and that the model, calibrated to match Spanish firm-level data, is consistent with the empirical facts during the crisis. The second chapter studies the positive and normative implications of "liability dollarization", the intermediation of capital inflows in units of tradables into domestic loans in units of aggregate consumption, on Sudden Stops models. Liability dollarization adds three important effects driven by real-exchange-rate fluctuations that alter standard models of Sudden Stops significantly: Changes on the debt repayment burden, on the price of new debt, and on a risk-taking incentive. The optimal policy under commitment is time-inconsistent, follows a complex non-linear structure, and shows that when domestic credit or capital inflows taxes are present, capital controls are not justified. Quantitatively, an optimized p

关键词： Charitable Giving   Donor-Advised Fund   Philanthropy  

摘要： Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are changing the mode of philanthropy in the United States. The lack of research on DAFs leaves nonprofit managers and policymakers with little empirical evidence or theoretical framework. The purpose of this dissertation is to provide scholarly research about why people use DAFs, how they function within the nonprofit economy, and what public policies may most effectively address public concerns. To this end, the dissertation is a combination of three peer-reviewed scholarly articles covering these topics. The first article tests behavioral economic concepts relating to charitable giving that help to explain why people use DAFs. The results showed that lower prices of giving lead to increases in charitable giving amounts and that increases in agency lead to higher participation rates in giving. The second article addresses how money flows through DAFs to other charities, and how this grantmaking is affected by macroeconomic factors. The study uses a panel data set of about one thousand DAF sponsors over a ten-year period, and merges this data with four macroeconomic factors. The findings suggest that money flows relatively quickly through DAFs to other nonprofits, and that giving out of DAFs is more resilient to recession economies than other forms of charitable giving. The third article reviews the public policy debates around donor-advised funds and makes public policy recommendations. The paper starts by reviewing the three major policy issues with DAFs: 1) the timing of donations and tax deductions, 2) transparency issues, and 3) the costs to the federal government. After analyzing current proposals within a historical context, the paper makes recommendations designed for the best interest of the nonprofit sector as a whole. The dissertation as a whole represents a seminal effort to conduct empirical research on donor-advised funds to better understand them and provide a theoretical framework for public policy.

关键词： Economics   Finance  

摘要： This dissertation explores macroeconomic aspects of residential and commercial real estate markets. The dissertation consists of three essays on topics in real estate investing, referring to investment in commercial property and in residential property other than owner-occupied housing. There are two main dimensions of the dissertation: one that looks at households’ holdings of investment real estate and another that looks at the information content of large data sets of macroeconomic and financial variables for forecasting real estate investment trust (REITs) returns. A third chapter of the dissertation also provides an overview of prior research, noting gaps that remain from both the consumer portfolio choice perspective and macroeconomic forecasting view.