关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 进入21世纪后,全球气候呈现出变暖的趋势,这对我国农业生产带来了极大的影响。基于此,重点分析了气候变化对农业生产所带来的影响,并提出相应的应对措施。

关键词： 华北平原   气候变化   灌溉需水   干旱易发区  

摘要： 以华北平原为研究区,选取冬小麦和夏玉米作为典型作物,采用作物系数法并依据预估的气候情景计算典型作物的净灌溉需水量,分析不同气温和降水变化幅度下冬小麦和夏玉米需水过程和需水总量。同时,结合气象干旱和需水异常程度划分了干旱易发区。所得成果可供相关研究人员参考。

关键词： 气候变化   食品安全   安全威胁   国家   农业   环境风险   宗教冲突   风险分析  

摘要： 据《悉尼先驱晨报》报道，英国知名风险分析机构梅普尔克罗夫特公司在其年度《气候变化与环境风险地图》中称，气候变化和食品安全正使全球风险陡增，在未来30年内有32个农业国家将面临冲突或社会动荡的“极端风险”，此外，食品短缺和价格飞涨将会加剧政治、种族、阶层和宗教冲突。

关键词： 气候变化   农业节水   技术与模式  

摘要： 建立与气候变化相适应的农业节水技术,可以通过较小的投入获得较大的收益与回报,而且能在一定的程度上有效缓解因水资源短缺而带来的农业生产矛盾,实现粮食的增产与农民的增收。基于此,通过论述气候变化对农业生产带来的影响,简要探讨与气候变化相适应的农业节水技术与模式的有效构建途径。

关键词： SLOPING LAND   CROP YIELD   VULNERABILITY   VARIABILITY   ANDALUSIA   TRENDS  

摘要： The adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change is studied in the Sierra Magina region (Andalusia) using an interdisciplinary approach that evaluates and makes associations across climate, water resources, and socioeconomic strategies. First, the evolution of rainfall and temperature during the twenty-first century is assessed at the local scale using 17 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. A 15%-30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with a 7%-9% annual reduction by 2030-50. Based on a regression model relating yields to rainfall, residual yields (independent of the increasing trend in the present period and from the biennial fruit bearing of the olive tree) are projected to decrease by 7% and 3.5% by 2030-50 for rainfed and irrigated olive groves, respectively. Substantial uncertainties in these results are discussed. A GIS analysis shows a reduction of ground and surface water resources, which are the basis of the present adaptation to rainfall variability, and an uneven potential for adaptation to climate change in the Sierra Magina region. Despite the important challenges faced by this rural region, there is no consensus among the local key actors regarding adaptation strategies. This is due in part to the diversity among farmers, but also to the different levels of awareness about climate change among all the stakeholders and farmers. Since the projected decline in medium-range future yields is not very high, there might be time and possibilities, especially in the northern part of the Sierra Magina, to build a local adaptability strategy within the next 20 years that would take into account improved methods of water management and a better economic valorization of olive oil. But at longer time scales, the adaptability of the olive-growing system to yield and water resource declines seems to be threatened.

关键词： 全球气候变化   粮食生产   农业生产   极端气候事件   自然要素   作物生长   经济发展   社会系统  

摘要： 农业尤其是粮食生产是以作物生长为基础，直接依赖于水、热、土等自然要素，对气候变化非常敏感。我国是一个人口大国，经济发展迅速，生活水平不断提高，需要确保国内粮食等大宗农产品稳定供给。粮食生产涉及的因素很多，是一个非常复杂的自然-社会系统。气候变化直接影响农业和粮食的生产，由于全球气候的变化，常导致极端气候事件频发，严重影响农业生产。

关键词： IPCC第二工作组   第五次评估报告   气候变化   农业生产   粮食安全  

摘要： IPCC第二工作组在第五次评估报告中客观而审慎地评估了气候变化已经发生和潜在的影响、各个领域与区域的敏感性和脆弱性。针对农业生产与粮食安全,报告表明,气候变化对全球大部分地区作物、畜牧、渔业产生了影响,且负面影响更普遍;不仅影响到生产过程,也影响到非生产系统因素,但这些影响存在区域差异。极端事件(如极端高温)对作物产量、品质及市场价格的负面影响明显。大气中CO_2浓度增高有利于作物产量提高,但是与温度、臭氧以及水分利用、病虫草害等协同效应仍然不明确。增强适应可以克服增温对农业的负面影响,并减少粮食损失。关于气候变化对粮食安全非生产系统因素的影响及如何开展适应,还需要搜集更多的证据。

关键词： 气候变化   综合评估   多指标   农业   弱性   中国   云南省  

摘要： 2014年7月29日，ClimaticChange在线发表的题为《用多指标方法综合评估中国农业的气候变化脆弱性》（IntegratedAssessmentofChina’s AgriculturalVulnerabilitytoClimateChange：aMulti-indicatorApproach）的文章表明，中国贵州、广西和云南省的农业对气候变化尤为脆弱，并且到2040年，这些地区的农业气候变化脆弱性还将进一步恶化。

关键词： 河北地区   气候变化   农业影响  

摘要： 以气温和降水为主要气候因子,选取河北及京津23个气象站点数据,分析河北地区1956-2007年气候变化特征:近50年全区年均气温呈波动上升趋势,且冬季气温升高对年气温的上升贡献率最大;年降水量总体呈波动减少趋势,其中夏季降水呈明显波动减少趋势。对未来该区气候变化特征进行了预估。从地下水位、土地环境、农业病虫害的角度分析了河北地区气候变化对农业生产环境的影响;分析了近50年来气候变化对农作物种植制度的影响以及对作物生理生态和品质产生的不确定影响。气候变化在一定程度上降低了农业生产水平,提高了生产成本,频发的极端气候事件也会增加农业生产的损失。最后给出了未来气候变化对该区农业的可能影响。

关键词： PRECIPITATION   VARIABILITY   SCIENCE   TRENDS  

摘要： This research focuses on the adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change in the Sierra Magina region of Andalusia. The authors combined a retrospective and prospective analysis, an interdisciplinary approach, collaboration among climatologists, geographers, and sociologists, and the participation of local farmers and stakeholders, all contributing their own knowledge. This paper assesses the adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate irregularities over the past 50 yr. First, a climatic study shows that rainfall decreased by 18% during the period 1955-2009. Water resource availability has declined 2 or 3 times more than rainfall, in part because of the expansion of irrigation, which ameliorated the effects of droughts and increased profitability. Second, relationships between rainfall and both irrigated and rainfed olive yields are assessed. These show that the cumulative rainfall of the 2 yr preceding the crop explains 41% of the variability of irrigated olive tree yields and 46% of rainfed yields; this result was unexpected for irrigated yields. Third, this study examines the perceptions of climate variability of 15 farmers, the views of 16 local stakeholders [developers, olive oil professionals, local authorities, a conservationist, and a representative of a local nongovernmental organization (NGO)]. The perceptions of the farmers are interpreted with respect to their socioeconomic status. All farmer and stakeholder interviewees know to a certain extent the climatic influence on olive yields, and most of them acknowledge the recent climatic changes. These findings will be valuable for future assessments of the adaptability of the agricultural and social systems to climate change.