关键词： 气候变化   旱作农业   影响   解决途径  

摘要： 通过分析气候变化对西北半干旱区旱作农业生产的影响、当前生产中应用的主要抗旱技术、提高粮食生产能力的机理等,以探索应对未来气候变化下西北旱作农业发展的技术途径,为推动未来旱作农业发展、保障粮食安全提供参考。结果表明,未来气候变化对西北半干旱区作物生长的影响主要有3方面:一是气温升高导致作物产量降低,品质下降;二是降水量和降水格局变化引发的作物干旱/洪涝问题;三是极端气候引发的气象灾害导致粮食生产波动。为适应或缓解上述不利影响,提高有限降水利用效率、优化土壤结构、提升土壤肥力、增强作物-土壤体系抵御环境变化的能力,缓解未来气候变化对西北半干旱区粮食生产的影响,应主要从3方面入手:(1)覆盖聚集降水,提高土壤蓄水保墒能力,改变土壤水分分配,调控土壤水分运移并提高降水入渗效率,从而"调水"以适应降水变化;(2)土壤培肥优化土壤结构、改良土壤理化性质,从而"改土"提高作物-土壤体系对环境变化的适应能力以应对未来气候变化,稳定旱作农业生产力;(3)通过"调水"和"改土"技术集成,形成"水土协调"技术体系以综合应对未来气候变化,减缓未来气候变化对西北半干旱区粮食生产的不利影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气候的变化对于农业气象的影响是多层次的,有正面、负面之分。气候的差异对南北造成的影响不同,如北方干旱受灾面积扩大,南方洪涝加重,而气候的变化不仅仅对农业气象有所影响,在一定程度上对我国国民经济发展也同样造成了负面影响。

关键词： climate change   impact   rain-fed farming   solutions   影响   旱作农业   气候变化   解决途径   Language of Keywords: English   Chinese  

摘要： The impact of climate change on the agriculture production in semi-arid areas of Northwest, the major drought-resistant technology, the mechanism of increasing grain production were analyzed to explore technical solutions to retort the future climate change, future development of rainfed agriculture, and provide reference for food security. The results showed that the impact of future climate change on crop growth had main three aspects: Firstly, higher temperatures resulted in lower crop yield and quality decline; Secondly, changes in precipitation and precipitation patterns resulted in drought/flooding problems; Thirdly, meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather lead to fluctuations of food production. To adapt or mitigate these adverse effects, increase use efficiency of limited rainfall, optimize soil structure, improve soil fertility, enhance withstanding environmental change ability of crop-soil system, mitigate the impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest China, the mainly solutions were:（1）Covering gathered precipitation, improve the ability to accumulate soil moisture, change the distribution of soil moisture, regulate the migration and improve the infiltration of precipitation, thus “adjusting water”to adapt to precipitation changes;（2）Optimizing soil structure, physical and chemical properties by soil fertilization, thus “regulating soil”to improve the ability of crop-soil system against to environmental changes, in order to stabilize productivity of rainfed agriculture;（3）Integrate“adjusting water”and“regulating soil”technology, forming technical system of“coordination of water and soil”to comprehensively response to future climate change, mitigate the adverse impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： climate change   climate mitigation   agriculture   crop model   AgMIP   ISI-MIP   carbon dioxide   EARTH SYSTEM MODEL   ELEVATED CO2   CARBON-DIOXIDE   INCREASING CO2   FOOD SECURITY   CROP YIELD   IMPACTS   SCENARIOS   PROTOCOLS   RESPONSES  

摘要： Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate similar to 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food i

关键词： qualitative approach   cross-sectoral approach   land use conflict   land use governance   Germany   IMPACTS   PERCEPTIONS   OPTIONS   RISKS  

摘要： Adaptation and mitigation measures are important in dealing with climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and water management. Stakeholders have an important role to play in coping with climate change at the regional scale, so it is important to identify which measures they are aware of and which they have implemented. This paper describes the regional adaptation and mitigation measures taken by stakeholders in northern Germany and the connections between the sectoral measures and the spatial scales involved. The study finds that adaptation measures have either been implemented or chosen at the regional scale; that adaptation plays an important role at the regional scale whilst mitigation measures are almost non-existent; that water-related issues link the land use sectors examined; and that experts clearly view the national level as the appropriate level for policy makers to exert political influence on measures relating to climate change.

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业问题   粮食安全   安全委员会   FAO   联合国   协议   国力  

摘要： FAO总干事在罗马举行的世界粮食安全委员会（简称粮安委）会外活动上发出呼吁,各国应致力于确保就应对气候变化签署协议,并将粮食安全和农业作为相关讨论的主题,否则,在抗击全球饥饿方面取得的进展将会消失殆尽.FAO敦促各国力争在2015年12月的巴黎联合国气候变化大会（COP21）之前就如何应对气候变化达成协议.

关键词： 农业气象灾害   病虫害   气候变化  

摘要： 气候变化是不可控因素,其对我国农业气象灾害及病虫害都有着十分重要的影响,而且都是利弊共存的,如何有效的做好预防工作,需要对这些影响有深刻的认识。文章就天气变化对我国农业气象灾害以及对病虫害的影响所详细描述。

关键词： 农业水利投资   水利资源   耕地利用   技术效率   随机前沿函数  

摘要： 本文基于1999—2012年省级面板数据,通过引入农业水利投资的代理变量,运用随机前沿模型分析农业水利投资对我国耕地产出效率、农业生产增长的影响。结果表明,农业水利投资对降低我国各地区耕地产出效率损失具有显著作用,而耕地产出效率损失的变化差异也能够被气候变化导致的水利灾害所解释。加大农业水利投资力度,改善投资结构,可以缓解农业技术的效率损失。政府应加大对耕地利用效率较低省份的水利基础设施投资,充分配置,合理运用水利资源,保障我国农业的可持续发展。

关键词： 气候变化   低碳农业   法律保障  

摘要： 日益加剧的气候变化对江苏省可持续发展的负面影响显著,迫切需要大力推进低碳农业建设,进一步修订农业领域应对气候变化的法律法规。尤其是通过完善土地资源保护、农药使用、林业与水资源保护等方面的地方性立法构建确保本区域低碳农业有序发展的法律保障机制。