关键词： ARIMA模型   新冠肺炎   传染病预测   ARIMA Model   COVID-19   Prediction of Infectious Diseases  

摘要： 目前，新冠病毒仍在全球肆虐。为了更好地模拟病毒的传播情况，本文基于疫情数据，应用ARIMA模型对巴基斯坦的新冠疫情趋势进行预测，对模型的相关性质进行检验。最后分析了该模型在传染病预测中的应用价值，为新冠疫情预测提供实践经验。

关键词： MESSENGER-RNA VACCINES   ADENOVIRUS VECTORS   SARS CORONAVIRUS   RESPONSES   REPLICATION   EXPRESSION   INFECTION  

摘要： The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raises concerns of reduced COVID-19 vaccine efficacy. We investigated the humoral immunity in uninfected and previously infected ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinees, who have received complete regimes of vaccines bymeans of a SARS-CoV-2 surrogate virus blocking test. The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (p = 0.0013) and BNT162b2 (p = 0.0005) vaccines induced significant higher blocking activity with longer durability against the Spike (S) protein receptor binding domain (RBD) of wild type SARS-CoV-2 than the CoronaVac vaccine in uninfected vaccinees. Prior infection improved protection in the CoronaVac vaccinees. Subsequent investigation on the breadth of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced antibody blocking responses, revealed that all vaccine platforms cross-protected uninfected vaccinees against all variant of concerns, except Omicron. Prior infection protected the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccinees againstOmicron but not CoronaVac vaccinees. Our study suggests that vaccines that induce broader sterilizing immunity are essential to fight against fast-emerging variants.